5736   

農業情報研究所(WAPIC

シカゴ商品取引所小麦・トウモロコシ・大豆先物相場(期近・セツルメント)の推移

史上最高:小麦=9.24/bushel08.6.26) トウモロコシ=7.7325/bushel08.6.1) 大豆=16.58/bushel08.7.4
1bushel=27.215kg
(小麦・大豆)、25.401kg(トウモロコシ)

コメント/関連ニュース:最新22.1.8

最近260取引日:21.1.14-22.1.27

 

22年1月8日

大豆滓需要と南米の天候が大豆価格を押し上げる(Soybeans rally, following soymeal gainsReuters,22.1.7

21年12月22日

Soy hits highest price since August on South America crop worries,Reuters,21.12.21

CHICAGO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Unfavorable dryness in crop-growing areas of South America on Tuesday pushed Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures to their highest price since August and helped lift corn futures, analysts said.

Wheat futures also traded higher.

21年12月18日

[高騰ショック]配合飼料2900円上げ 全農1〜3月最高値を更新 日本農業新聞 21.12.18

21年11月30日

Wheat drops as dollar edges higher; Australia forecasts record crop,Reuters,21.11.30

CHICAGO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures retreated on Monday on a firmer dollar and as a record harvest outlook from major exporter Australia eased recent concerns about rain-damaged crops.Corn and soybeans followed wheat lower, pressured by technical selling and profit-taking and by good weekend rains in Argentina and parts of Brazil.  

21年11月23日

小麦、9年来の高騰

Wheat prices in Russia rose for a fifth straight week last week on strong demand. Shipments from the world's largest exporter are down 34% this season due to a smaller crop and rising export taxes.

Heavy rains, meanwhile stalled harvesting in Australia and threatened crop quality, while flooding in western Canada has disrupted exports when global demand for wheat has risen.Wheat soars to 9-year peak on supply concerns, strong demand,Reuters,21.11.22

21年11月18日   

U.S. WHEAT FUTURES RISE AS EXPORT MARKET HEATS UPReutersSuccessful Farming,21..11.17

21年11月11日  

小麦がグローバルなタイトなサプライと輸出需要増加で12年12月以来の8ドル台に高騰。ロシアは国内価格高騰に際しての輸出税の計算方法の変更や輸出割当を検討している。

  GRAINS-Wheat futures rally as global stocks tighten; corn, soy also strong,Reuters,21.11.10

  Crop Production USDA 21.11.10

  関連:ニップン、家庭用小麦粉を1.5〜9%値上げ 日本経済新聞 21.11.10

21年10月29日 

GRAINS-Wheat futures hit multiyear highs; corn firm, soy weak,,Nasdaq,21.10.28

CHICAGO, Oct 28 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures rallied to multiyear highs on Thursday with concerns about tight global supplies and strong export demand fueling the gains.

MGEX spring wheat hit its highest level since June 2011 on expectations that overseas buyers will soon begin looking to the United States to fill their orders for high-protein wheat.

Winter wheat futures were supported by concerns about the condition of the recently seeded crop as it heads toward dormancy and rainy weather in the eastern U.S. Midwest that may have prevented farmers from seeding as much acreage as they planned.

21年10月2日

GRAINS-Wheat hits near 3-week high on USDA stock forecast,Reuters,21.10.1

CANBERRA, Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures edged up to near a three-week high on Friday, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged stocks at their lowest level since 2007.

21年9月9日

農水省が輸入小麦政府売渡価格を引き上げた途端に、シカゴ小麦は7月以来初めてブッシェル6ドル台に落ち込んだ。

カナダのリポートがカナダの小麦供給が予想外に多いと報告したためという。

なお、トウモロコシは今年1月初め以来のブッシェル4ドル台、]大豆も昨年12月末以来のブッシェル12ドル台転落だ。

GRAINS-U.S. corn, soybean, wheat futures fall ahead of USDA report,Nasdaq,21.9.9

 

21年9月8日

 

輸入小麦の政府売渡価格の改定について 農林水産省 21.9.8

 

小麦主要輸出国の輸出価格小麦・トウモロコシ・大豆の米国輸出価格の推移(農業情報研究所)

 

21年9月1日

 

ハリケーン・Idaの影響で輸出が滞る恐れ

GRAINS-Corn, soybeans sag on U.S. export worries after Ida; wheat follows,Nasdaq,21.9.1

U.S. corn futures fell about 2% on Wednesday, with the benchmark December contract hitting a seven-week low as worries about shipping delays from the U.S. Gulf Coast triggered a round of long liquidation, analysts said.

 

21年7月20日

 

21714日から15日にかけトウモロコシが急落しているが、これは限月が変わった(JLY22→SEP21、小麦も同じ)ためである。

 

21年6月18日

Top agricultural traders predict a ‘mini supercycle’,FT.com,21.6.18

‎Markets for corn, soyabeans and wheat expected to remain strong over next few years

Agricultural commodities are at the start of a “mini-supercycle” with prices expected to be boosted for several years by demand from China and for biofuels, according to some of the world’s top traders.

Executives from Cargill, Cofco, Viterra and Scoular said this week that the markets for corn, soyabeans and wheat will remain strong over the next two to four years.

 

21年5月21日

 

As corn prices surge, China substitutes wheat, rice as feed ,Hindu Business,21.5.20

‎Beijing also begins diversifying suppliers as part of its efforts to hike hog output

 

21年5月3日

 

トウモロコシが小麦に追いつく。

 

21年4月23日

 

GRAINS-Corn highest since 2013, soy tops $15 and wheat over $7 on supply fears,Nasdaq,21.4.22

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Surge on Chinese Demand, Weather Woes,Bloomberg,21.4.22

 

21年4月22日 

 

GRAINS-Corn at highest since 2013 on U.S. weather, soybeans up 1.3%,Reuters,21.4.22

* Corn extends gains as cold weather hurts newly planted U.S. crop

* Soybeans climb to highest in 7 years, wheat up for third session (Adds details on Brazil’s corn crop, fund positioning, updates prices)

Corn Is Surging as U.S. Sees China Imports at All-Time High,Bloomberg,2,.4.22

 Corn prices climbed above $6 a bushel to the loftiest level in almost eight years after the U.S. said it expects China to buy an all-time high amount of the grain off global markets.

21年4月15日 

GRAINS-U.S. cold snap fears fuel rally in wheat, corn, soy futures,Succesful Farming,21,4,14

CHICAGO, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat, corn and soybean futures rallied on Wednesday, supported by concerns that a cold snap in the U.S. Midwest and Plains could hamper crop development, traders said.

Chicago Board of Trade corn gained 2.8% to hit its highest since June 2013.

Wheat futures posted the biggest increases, with CBOT soft red winter wheat futures jumping 3.2%, while K.C. hard red winter wheat rising 3.4%.

"Cold surge next week poses spotty wheat damage risk in southern one-third of the U.S. Plains; possible burn back to emerged Midwest corn," Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients.

The weather also could cause some growers to delay their planting of corn and soybeans as crops seeded in the cold temperature could struggle to emerge from soils. 

21320   

配合飼料5500円上げ 原料高騰続く 全農4〜6月 日本農業新聞 21.3.20

21212   

Chinas record purchase of corn a wartershed moment,Financial Times,21.2.12,p.10

China’s record corn purchases have traders wondering if bump can last,FT.com,21.2.12

Prices surge to near eight-year high as demand from Beijing fuels grain market rally

21122  

配合飼料高騰 長期化に農家恐々 負担増へ先手置き換え急ぐ 食べ残し削減徹底 日本農業新聞 21.1.22

201231 

小麦145月、トウモロコシ137月、大豆146月以来最高

201231 

Food price rally sparks warnings of pressure on developing countries,FT.com,20.12.31

Large rise in agricultural commodities creates recipe for unrest within fragile economies

A sharp rebound in food prices is stirring concerns over inflation and potential unrest in some developing countries.Stockpiling, logistical bottlenecks and dry weather have pushed wheat, soyabeans, rice, and corn markets higher. The Bloomberg Agricultural sub-index has jumped more than a third since its low point in June to a two-and-a-half-year high, while the UN Food and Agriculture

201229

Food prices: bun fights,FT.com,20.12.29

A clean plate campaign and social media censorship of exuberant eating videos this year reflect Chinas growing fear of food shortages. Disruptions from the pandemic have been compounded by the countrys worst floods in decades. While global harvests remain plentiful, fear of a breakdown in supply chains has put an end to a decade of falling food prices.

201222

Weather and ports' strike in Argentina boosting soy and cereals prices,Merco Press,20.12.23

United States soybeans climbed to six-year highs this week as weather and export troubles in Argentina outweighed concerns of a new coronavirus strain hitting Britain. Corn and wheat futures traded near even as soybeans supported the grains complex.

201126

Wheat down 3%; soy, corn also sag on pre-holiday slide,Reuters,20.11.25

フォームの終わり

CHICAGO, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures fell more than 3% on Wednesday and corn and soybean futures also slipped as traders booked profits after recent highs in all three markets, and ahead of Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, analysts said.

20116

Soyabean prices hit four-year high as nerves rise over food inflation,FT.com,20.11.6

Dry weather and government stockpiling have pushed soyabean prices to a four-year high, as a broad rebound in agricultural commodities creates unease about inflation.

Grains and soyabeans have been rising steadily since the middle of the year, buoyed by governments shoring up their reserves in anticipation of disruption from the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. China has been a particularly active buyer as the country steadily rebuilds its pig herds in the wake of the devastation caused by African swine fever.

This strong demand suggests that some countries are concerned about food inflation, said Andrew Rawlings, an analyst at Rabobank. Inflation is creeping up in some places, he added. Hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina as a result of the La Niña weather pattern have knocked the supply of soyabeans, lifting prices traded in Chicago to $11.01 a bushel, up more than a third since their April low. Any further weather issues in South America and this can give reason to see soya in the teens, said Matt Ammerman at US commodity broker StoneX.

Corn prices have made a similar recovery since the spring to about $4.15 a bushel, helped by a harvest shortfall in Ukraine caused by dry weather.

Wheat, which has been in high demand from large buyers such as Egypt and Morocco amid a drought in north Africa, was trading at around $6.15.

China, which has sold large amounts of grain from its strategic reserves since May in an effort to dampen rising grain prices, needed to replenish its stockpiles, said Wayne Gordon, agricultural analyst at UBS in Singapore.

 They were getting close to very low levels, he said.----------

The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that in the week that ended October 27, speculators held record net long positions in agricultural commodity futures and options.

But Michael Haigh, analyst at Société Générale said that most grains and oilseeds were overbought and susceptible to profit-taking

 
Global food prices continue rising in October
,FAO,20.11.5

201027

米国通商代表部・農務省の発表によると、中国の米国農産物購入額は米中第一段階通商合意で合意した向こう2年間の目標額の71%に達したそうである。中でトウモロコシの購入契約額はかつてない870万トンに達し、大豆も2017年の倍の契約額で2021販売年度のスタートを切ったそうである。 

 USTR and USDA Release Report on Agricultural Trade between the United States and China,USDA,20.10.24

 

  

 参照

 中国が米産農産品400億ドル輸入の大法螺 トランプの農民向け選挙戦略もこれまで 農業情報研究所 19.12.16

 米中が第一段階合意、関税を猶予 ロイター 19.12.14

201024

小麦、1412月以来、大豆167月以来の高値

201017

世界の主要小麦生産地域の干ばつで小麦が6年来の高騰

Chicago Le blé au plus haut depuis 2014(AFP),Agri Mutuel,20.10.16

Le cours du principal contrat de blé échangé à Chicago est monté vendredi à son plus haut en près de six ans sur fond d'inquiétudes autour des récoltes mondiales. Le maïs et le soja ont baissé.

« Un temps sec à travers la planète a réduit les perspectives de rendement dans des régions clefs pour la production de blé, notamment lArgentine », note Jacquie Holland de Farm Futures Daily.

« Des prévisions de sécheresse en Mer Noire et aux Etats-Unis sont également très présentes à lesprit des courtiers », ajoute lexperte

GRAINS-Wheat hits near 6-year high, set for weekly jump as dry weather stokes supply woes,Reutrs,20.10,16

SYDNEY, Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures hit a near 6-year high on Friday, as dry weather in key global producing regions raised supply concerns, pushing the grain towards its third straight weekly gain of about 4.5%. 

201010

Iowa's estimated derecho crop losses increase by more than 50% in latest USDA report,Des Moines Register,20.10.9

The number of crop acres that Iowa farmers are unable to harvest after the devastating August derecho has grown to 850,000, a new U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed Friday.

That's a more than 50% increase from September, when the USDA had set the estimated loss to the Aug.10 derecho at 550,000 acres. The storm flattened crops with winds up to 140 mph. The damage was compounded in late summer with a drought that, at its peak, encompassed much of the state. The drought is once again expanding after some September rainfall.

20919

ラニーニャ意識、農産物が高値 異常気象で収量減観測も 投機筋がトウモロコシなど買い 過去には相場高騰も 日本経済新聞 20.9.18

20916

限月は915日をもって小麦・トウモロコシが9月から12月、大豆が9月から11月に変わる。

20912

11日発表の米国農務省:World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimatesが今年(2020/21年)の米国産大豆及びトウモロコシの生産見通しを先月発表の数字から大幅に引き下げた。これを受け、シカゴ大豆先物が175月以来初めてブッシェル10ドルを突破。トウモロコシも上昇基調がはっきりしてきた。

2091

Iowa's farmers reeling from a double blow — first the derecho, now a drought,Des Moines Register,20.8.31

derecho's hurricane-force winds slammed through about half of Chad West's 4,500 acres of corn and soybeans Aug. 10. Now, the drought is burning up the rest of his crop, the central Iowa farmer said.トウモロコシ

West, 49, spent part of this week disking under 300 acres of corn that's considered a complete loss. 

"You put so much time, money and effort into a crop, to give up and say, 'We're not going to harvest this' ... it's really disheartening," he said, adding that he anticipates he will need to disk under another 400 flattened acres of corn, too. 

The ever-widening drought now encompasses three-fifths of Iowa, the U.S. Drought Monitor's latest map showed Thursday. Nearly all of the rest of the state is considered abnormally dry, with only a few pockets of Iowa escaping both the drought and derecho

20828

Futures File: Soybeans soar due to drought concerns,Des Moine Register,20.8.28

Soybeans neared a one-year high on Friday, exceeding $9.47 per bushel. Prices are shooting higher on continued concerns that weather is too dry in much of the Midwest, especially Iowa and Illinois, the nations top two soybean-growing states.

20826

暴風に乾燥の追い討ちでトウモロコシが上昇

Low rainfall in US Midwest drives corn prices higher,FT.com,20.8.26

Benchmark up almost 4% since start of week as sweltering heat hits crop conditions

Worries about a lack of rainfall this month in the US Midwest have lifted corn prices, with data from the US Department of Agriculture pointing to deteriorating crop conditions.

Benchmark corn prices are up almost 4 per cent since the start of the week at $3.39¼ a bushel, and have gained 9 per cent over the past two weeks

Prices had already received a boost after crops were damaged during a storm on August 10 that hit Iowa, a key corn-growing state. The latest concern, however, has been the low rainfall in the US corn belt throughou 

20711

GRAINS-Wheat futures top two-month high on global harvest worries,Reuters,20.7.10

CHICAGO, July 9 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures on Thursday leapt to their highest prices in more than two months at the Chicago Board of Trade, as the latest crop estimates in major exporting countries like Argentina, France and Russia raised questions about global supply.

Corn and soybean futures also strengthened, as weather forecasts predicted more heat and dryness in the U.S. Midwest crop belt later this month. Positioning helped support gains ahead of Fridays monthly supply and demand outlook from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Analysts expect the USDA will trim its estimate for U.S. wheat production in the latest cut to global harvest estimates from crop forecasters around the world. Production forecasts have also declined this week in exporters like Argentina, Russia and France.

Economy ministry signs memo with grain market players for agreeing on export volumes, not for limiting exports – minister,Inter-fax Ukraine,20.7.8

The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine signed the memorandum with grain market players for the current season for agreeing on the volumes of grain exports, not for limiting them, Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Ihor Petrashko has said.

 

Ukraine exports record 57 mln tonnes of grain in 2019/20 agri-year,Inter-fax Ukraine,20.7.8

According to the results of the agricultural year 2019/2020 (July-June), Ukraine exported 20.5 million tonnes of wheat and 30.3 million tonnes of corn, the Ministry for Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture has reported, citing data from the State Customs Service.

2072

Futures File: Corn rockets higher,Des Moines Register,20.7.2

Corn prices put on a dazzling display this week, exploding to three-month highs on the heels of a USDA report.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture updated its estimates of this year’s planted acreage and shocked markets with a drastic cut of 5 million corn acres.

This news created fireworks across the grain markets, with December corn futures topping $3.60 per bushel. Wheat and soybeans went along for the ride, with Chicago wheat nearing $5.00 and November soybeans topping $9.00.

Despite the slashed corn acres, this years plantings will likely outpace 2019, and crop conditions are stellar so far, suggesting a bin-busting crop. If weather stays good, corn supplies could exceed expectations and send prices careening lower again.

20422

21日、トウモロコシがブッシェル3.092ドルで078月以来の最低:ブッシェル3.004ドル(0994日)に最接近。

2044

新型コロナによるパニック買いなど米で吊り上がっていた小麦、もう落ち着いてきたようである。

他方、新型コロナによる”ロックダウン”の影響で自動車移動が激減、それに伴うガソリン→燃料エタノール需要の減少で、エタノール原料=コーンは07年以来のどん底にまで落ち込んだままだ。コーンベルト農民は、おそらく立ち直ることができないほどに疲弊している(Midwest farmers face a crisis. Hundreds are dying by suicide.,Des Moines Register,20.3.10)。

20326

新型コロナ 米欧の小麦先物相場が急騰 コーンは燃料エタノール需要減で低迷

20317

Dow has worst point loss ever, soybeans lose 27¢ Monday,Successiful Farming,20.3.16

INDIANOLA, Iowa -- On Monday, the CME Groups farm markets get weighed down by the continued coronavirus crisis.

At the close, the May corn futures settled 11¢ lower at $3.54½. July corn futures ended 10¢ lower at $3.58

May soybean futures finished 27¢ lower at $8.21¾. July soybean futures closed 25½¢ lower at $8.30¾.

May wheat futures closed 8¢ lower at $4.98.

May soymeal futures closed $3.20 per short ton lower at $296.30. May soy oil futures closed 0.79¢ lower at 25.58¢ per pound.

20131

GRAINS-Soybean futures set eight-week low as coronavirus worries deepen,Reuters,20.1.31

米国大豆先物相場、コロナウィルスで急落 トランプ再選戦略に影?

20117

Uncertainty over China-US trade deal hits soyabean prices,FT.com,20.1.16

Commitments by Beijing to purchase more farm goods has been met with scepticism

Soyabean markets slid after the US and China signed a long-awaited preliminary trade agreement, reflecting uncertainty about Beijings promises to purchase more farm goods. The oilseed has historically been the biggest US farm export to China, which uses it to make livestock feed and cooking oil. Chinas government on Wednesday committed to imports of at least $80bn worth of US farm goods over the next two years, or an average of $40bn a year, the US Trade Representatives office said. The list includes bulk commodities such as soyabeans and cotton as well as consumer products such as dietary supplements and wine. The agreement also allows China to make purchases at market prices based on commercial considerations and consider market conditions in timing them. The latter provision raised questions about the whether China would follow through between now and 2021, said Ken Morrison, an agricultural markets analyst based in St Louis.

191012

US agrees limited trade deal with China,FT.com,19.10.12
Beijing has agreed to some additional purchases of farm goods, particularly soyabeans and pork, to an annual value between $40bn and $50bn, more than double the levels before the trade war, according to Mr Trump.

Trump announces partial trade deal with China, lifting hopes that tensions could ease,The Washingtron Post,19.10.12
The first steps include an increase in Chinese agricultural purchases, good news for American farmers who have lost billions of dollars in sales during the trade war. China recently began stepping up orders of U.S. farm products as a deal neared.
But exports of U.S. soybeans to China fell from $12.2 billion in 2018 to just $3.1 billion last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.Trump said the phase one deal would be
tremendous for farmers. Theyre going to have to buy more land fast and lots of tractors, he told reporters. 

191010

Beijing eyes buying extra US farm products to ease tension,Financial Times,19.10.10,p.3

China has fundamentally agreed to all of theUSDAs demandes on beef,pork and lamb

China offers to buy extra US goods to ease trade war,FT.com,19.10.9

Proposal for increased agricultural purchases aimed at reset ahead of Washington talks

Trump ethanol plan fails to cheer biofuel markets,FT.com,19.10.8

The US ethanol industry sounded elated last week when the Trump administration unveiled long-sought reforms to shore up biofuel demand, but the reaction in the markets has been less enthusiastic.

The price of compliance credits used in ethanol markets has fallen since Fridays announcement by the Environmental Protection Agency, reflecting questions about the details and doubts it could drive greater sales, analysts said.

Most petrol sold in the US contains about 10 per cent ethanol. The commodity is of huge economic importance in Midwestern US states, where more than a third of the corn crop is sold to ethanol plants. These states, in turn, are crucial to Donald Trumps re-election prospects in 2020.

Mr Trumps EPA on Friday announced a plan to push ethanol demand to 15bn gallons a year the level required by a congressional mandate in 2020 after previously punching holes in the mandate by giving exemptions to dozens of oil refiners.

If successful, the plan would soften the impact of the exemptions on ethanol demand, pushing up the price of credits that oil refiners purchase to meet blending requirements. The credits are formally known as Renewable Identification Numbers, or Rins.

But after Fridays announcement, the Rin credits have been falling off a cliff, said Denton Cinquegrana of Opis, a fuel price information service. Opis reported the average price of ethanol Rins was 20 cents a gallon on Monday, down 16 per cent from Thursday and close to the average price of 2019.

The drop reflected disappointment in the proposal, said Bill Lapp of Advanced Economic Solutions, a consultancy. The price of ethanol swaps was $1.485 a gallon in Chicago on Monday, down 2.3 per cent from Thursday. Corn futures also settled at $3.87 a bushel, slightly lower than Thursday・・・・・・

19914

米国が中国製品に対する関税追加の先延ばしするとしたことに応え、中国が米国産品に対する追加関税の適用対象から大豆・豚肉を除外、輸入を奨励すると発表した。これにシカゴ大豆相場が反応、急騰した。

中国、米国産農産物の新たな購入分への追加関税適用除外 新華社通信 19.9.13

China to exempt some US pork and soy imports from tariffs,FT.com,19.9.13

China said it would cancel additional tariffs on imports of soyabeans and pork that it intends to purchase from the US, in the latest of a series of goodwill gestures aimed at de-escalating a trade war between the worlds two largest economies.

China has encouraged companies to buy a certain quantity of pork and soyabeans from the US and they will be exempted from additional tariffs, state-run broadcaster CCTV reported, apparently referring to duties imposed since the start of the trade war.

It did not state the amounts that will be purchased. Soyabeans were the US' second-largest export to China ahead of the trade war, with $12bn sold to China in 2017. But exports plummeted last year as both sides raised tariffs on each others exports.・・・・・・ 

19814

大雨による収獲減少が予想外に少ないことを示すう農務省予想(Crop Production)を受け、跳ねあがっていた小麦・トウモロコシ相場が元の木阿弥。

19625

ヨーロッパの熱波とアメリカの大雨が小麦相場を支える

Le blé américain soutenu par la canicule en Europe,Agri Mutuel,19.6.25

Les cours du blé américain ont fini en nette hausse lundi, aidés par des conditions météorologiques difficiles, entre la canicule en Europe et la persistance de pluies aux États-Unis. Les cours du maïs et du soja ont aussi progressé.

19615

トウモロコシ、5年来のブッシェル4.5ドル越え。

1967 

 春季温暖化でアメリカ中西部は大雨続き、アイオワ州の4月から6月にかけての降水量は過去10年の平均を24%上回る。おかげでトウモロコシ・大豆畑は水浸し、今週初め(64日 Crop Progress)のトウモロコシ播種進捗率は67%にとどまっている(例年はの96%)。大豆はたったの39%にすぎない。

 

 このため、国連・世銀等による農産物市場情報システム(AMIS)は66日、2019年世界トウモロコシ生産見通しを59日の見通しから3900万トン引き下げた(米国の減少は3600万トン)(http://www.amis-outlook.org/#jfmulticontent_c363419-3)。
 

  Heavy rainfall damps prospects for Midwestern farms,FT.com,19.6.7

 

 

 シカゴ先物相場は下がりそうにない。日本の輸入価格=飼料価格への影響も必至であろう。

 

  <関連>Food prices rise amid weak production outlook for maize,FAO,19.6.6 

   

19530

トウモロコシ、3年来(166月以来)の高騰

Corn prices jump to 3-year high amid extreme wet weather,FT.com,19.5.29

Corn prices popped to a 3-year high after a severe delay in plantings in the US midwest due to extreme wet weather.

CBOT corn was trading above $4.38 a bushel, the highest since June 2016. Corn prices have soared 24 per cent since the start of the month amid wet weather conditions.

According to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture, only 58 per cent of corn fields had been sown by the end of last week. That is far lower than the 90 per cent planted on average in the past five years.

 The window for corn planting is gradually closing if the risk of yield shortfalls is not to increase significantly, said analysts at Commerzbank.

There are growing concerns about soyabean planting, with just 29 per cent of fields planted, lagging far behind the five-year average figure of 66 per cent.

Winter wheat is also suffering from the wet conditions, with 61 per cent of crops in good or excellent condition down five percentage points from a week earlier, according to Commerzbank.

19528

長く低迷していた米国トウモロコシ価格が一転上昇へ 大豆は低迷が続く

トウモロコシの作付け(播種)が進まない(5月現在、過去5年平均の半分ほど→Crop Progress USDA 5.21)うえに天候不順(4月の寒さと5月まで続いた異例の多雨)で収量減少も予想される。ためにトウモロコシ先物は過去2週間に急騰。トウモロコシ作付けの遅れは、代替作物である大豆の収穫を促す傾向が歴史的にある。よって大豆価格は将来下がるだろう。今夏の天候予想は明るくても、貿易戦争で痛めつけられた農家に明るい展望は開けない。

 US corn: grainy day,FT.com,19.5.28

19517

先週末〜今週初めにブッシェル8ドルを切った大豆、上昇に転じたが、8.869.21ドルと言われる大部分の農家の採算ライン(トランプ大統領 対中輸出減少で余った大豆を人道的食料援助に)にはなお及ばない。

19511

大豆先物期近相場が2007年以来初めてブッシェル8ドルを割った(7.97ドル)。最大の要因はトランプ大統領が仕掛けた対中貿易戦争だ。中国は米国大豆の最大の顧客だったが、昨年7月、対米報復措置として大豆輸入に25%の関税を課した。米国大豆の対中輸出は激減に向かい、ブラジルが漁夫の利益を得た。行き場を失った米国大豆は在庫が積み上がるばかり、かくて大豆は歴史的安値に泣くことになったのである。

  US-China: farmers count cost of trade war ,FT,com,19.1.8 

US-China tensions knock soyabeans to post-crisis low,FT.com,19.5.10

Soyabeans, a commodity sensitive to the state of Sino-US relations, have fallen below $8 a bushel for the first time since the financial crisis as uncertainty rises over trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

A sharp slide in the price of the oilseed came alongside a broader sell-off in financial markets on Thursday, with US stocks down about 1 per cent at midday and long-term US government interest rates tumbling below short-term rates,

in a sign investors were concerned about the economic outlook.The Trump administrations plan to raise tariffs on more Chinese goods this week have undermined hopes of a deal and sparked the sell-off.

China has steadily grown to become the worlds largest importer of soyabeans, crushing them into meal to feed pigs and poultry. The US has historically sold the majority of its soyabean exports to China, a business worth $12bn a year.

China imposed a 25 per cent tariff on US soyabeans last July in retaliation for new US duties on its goods, targeting farmers in rural states where a majority voted for Donald Trump as president. The impediment halted US soyabean exports to China for months, until a resumption of trade talks in December led China to make about 13m tonnes of goodwill purchases.

An escalation of the trade war threatens to block those volumes, just as farmers hold record stocks of soyabeans

.The unresolved trade issue with China is hanging over the market. That is the 800lb gorilla, said Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean & Corn Advisor, a consultancy in Illinois.

Soyabeans for May delivery fell as much as 2.3 per cent to $7.95¼ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the lowest price for a near-month contract since December 2008.

All futures contracts fell, with soyabeans deliverable after the US harvest in November dropping to $8.30 a bushel.

Most farmers cannot break even at such prices. An Iowa State University analysis estimated costs per bushel for the most commonly planted soyabean varieties at between $8.86 and $9.21.--------

CBOT crop futures extend losses amid bearish USDA report, trade tensions,Xinhua,19.5.11

CHICAGO, May 10 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures settled lower for the third consecutive session over larger ending stock estimates and trade tensions.

The most active corn contract for July delivery was down 1.5 cents, or 0.42 percent, to 3.5175 U.S. dollars per bushel on Friday. July wheat was down 4.75 cents, or 1.11 percent, to 4.2475 dollars per bushel. July soybeans were down 3.5 cents, or 0.43 percent, to 8.0925 dollars per bushel.

The U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) released on Friday its monthly supply and demand report, showing bearish estimates for the agricultural market.

The initial outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger stocks. Meanwhile, higher world ending stocks and fierce competition in international market will pressure U.S. wheat further.

The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2019/20 is for larger corn production and domestic use, lower exports, and greater ending stocks. U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 25 million bushels in 2019/20, despite larger world corn trade.

Although the 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19, the trade frictions between the United States and China still drag down CBOT soybean prices, said market watchers.

Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade(May 2019):USDA

181222

配合飼料500円上げ トウモロコシ価格が影響 全農 日本農業新聞 18.12.22

 JA全農は21日、2019年1〜3月期の配合飼料の供給価格を、前期(18年10〜12月期)に比べ、全国全畜種総平均で1トン当たり約500円引き上げると発表した。値上げは2期ぶり。米中間の貿易摩擦から大豆かすの価格は下落したが、トウモロコシの価格上昇や円安が影響した。また、全農によると、10〜12月期の配合飼料価格安定制度による補填(ほてん)は発動する見通しだ。

 トウモロコシのシカゴ相場は現在、1ブッシェル(約25キロ)380セント台で推移。米国産の豊作の見通しから9月には350セント前後だったが、好調な輸出需要や、10月11日発表の米農務省の需給見通しで単位収量が下方修正されたことなどから上昇した。米国産は史上2位の生産量となる見通しだが、米国内の飼料やエタノールなどの需要も史上最高が予想され、今後の相場は底堅く推移する見込みだ。
 一方、大豆かすのシカゴ相場は1トン当たり340ドル前後で推移し、同350ドル台だった9月より下落した。中国が米国産の大豆に報復関税をかけたことで、11月8日の米農務省需給見通しが米国の大豆輸出量を下方修正され、期末在庫が大幅に増加したことなどが影響。国内大豆かす価格も値下がりが見込まれる。
 為替相場は9月上旬に1ドル111円前後だったが、今回の価格決定時には113円前後で、円安となった。海上運賃は10月には1トン当たり53ドル台まで上昇したが、原油相場の下落などで現在は50ドル前後で推移する。
   

CBOT soybean futures fall as Chinese purchases miss forecast,Xinhua.18.12.22

CHICAGO, Dec. 21 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures ended below 9 U.S. dollars per bushel for the first time in three weeks, as Chinese purchases missed traders' forecast.

Private exporters on Thursday reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) new export sales of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, following 1.199 million metric tons to the same destination this week.

China bought 1.43 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last week, according to the USDA. Traders had anticipated that China would buy more soybeans, market watchers said.

CBOT soybeans were also under pressure from abundant supply from South America, overshadowing support from renewed Chinese buying of U.S. supplies.

Wheat futures dropped sharply after Russia raised its grain export forecast and dampened speculation that tight supplies would prompt curbs on overseas shipments from the world's biggest wheat supplier.

Corn futures rose slightly higher after hitting a three-week low in the previous session.

At the end of the session, the most active corn contract for March delivery went up 3.25 cents, or 0.87 percent to close at 3.785 dollars per bushel. March wheat delivery was down 9.5 cents, or 1.81 percent to close at 5.14 dollars per bushel. March soybean delivery was down 8.5 cents, or 0.94 percent to close at 8.9775 dollars per bushel.

181215

大豆、底入れ後も上値重く 米中「休戦」に不透明感 日本経済新聞 18.12.14

米中貿易戦争のあおりで春夏に急落した大豆相場が底入れした。シカゴ先物(期近)は1ブッシェル9.1ドル前後と9月の安値より1割高い。中国が米国産の農産物輸入を増やす姿勢を示し、投機筋が買い意欲を強めた。ただ米中貿易がどこまで回復するか不透明なうえ、主産国の米国やブラジルの供給は潤沢。上値の重い展開を予想する声は多い。

18123

US soyabean futures rise on hopes for China exports,FT.com,18.12.3

The tentative truce in the trade war between Washington and Beijing sparked a rise in the price of US soyabeans, reflecting hopes that exports may soon resume to China.

January-delivered soyabean futures opened up 3.2 per cent early Monday at $9.2375 a bushel, the highest price since June, before giving up some gains on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soyabean futures fell more than 1 per cent on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China.China, the worlds largest consumer of soyabeans, increased tariffs on US-grown supplies by 25 percentage points in July in response to duties on its goods imposed by US President Donald Trump.---------

181129

Soyabeans bounce back on hopes of US-China trade truce,FT.com,18.11.28

Soyabean prices bounced back on Tuesday as traders continued to weigh the prospect of the US and China reaching a trade war truce at the G20 summit later this week.

Prices for the foodstuff fell on Monday by the most in five weeks and to their lowest since early November after US President Donald Trump said in an interview he would push through plans for new tariffs on $267bn of tariffs on Chinese imports if he and Xi Jinping, his counterpart in Beijing, could not agree a deal on trade.

関税合戦、中国に痛手 米国産大豆激減、養豚業から悲鳴  朝日新聞 18.11.28

181027

US farmers turn to Iran to plug hole in soyabean sales,FT.com,18.10.26

Islamic republics imports have surged as tariffs decimate US sales to China

To US farmers whose soyabean sales have slumped amid a trade war with China, an unlikely country is lending a hand: Iran.

The Islamic republics imports of soyabeans from the US have surged this autumn ahead of looming sanctions from President Donald Trump. Almost 335,000 tonnes have left terminals on the Mississippi river since the crop marketing year began in September, data from the US department of agriculture data show, up from zero at the same point last year and more than volumes to most European countries.

The unusual shipments reflect a multi-faceted story. China, the worlds largest soyabean importer, in July sharply raised duties on US supplies in retaliation for tariffs on its products. Soyabean prices have declined by 20 per cent in Chicago as the Chinese buy oilseeds elsewhere.

US sanctions on Irans oil exports will resume on November 4 following Mr Trumps withdrawal from a nuclear accord with world powers. Iran has been stockpiling basic foods such as corn and soyabeans in an aim not to face any shortage of strategic commodities, said Mani Jamshidi, a food industry expert in Tehran.

Importers including Mexico, Spain, Egypt, Thailand and Iran have taken advantage of the depressed price of US soyabeans. Akbar Sebghati, secretary of the Iranian Oilseed Extraction Industry Association, said they now cost importers 50 less per tonne than soyabeans from South America, the other main source of world supplies

.We buy our commodity from a cheaper producer, no matter [if] it is US or another country. It has nothing to do to politics, said Mr Sebghati.

Addressing the US-China trade war, he said: We should seize opportunities provided to our country during decision making in world trade.

18918

小麦、トウモロコシの限月 189月から12月へ(17日)。

18731

Drought turns up the heat on wheat producers,FT.com,18.7.31

Euronext milling benchmark at a 4-year high as analysts downgrade output estimates

The wheat market is feeling the heat, with key global producers sweating over a drought that has curbed output. After several years of bumper harvests, the wheat market is poised to tighten sharply as Russia, Australia and EU countries contend with scorching temperatures.In Australia, the state of New South Wales has announced a A$500m aid package for struggling farmers, while Germanys farming association has called for 1bn in financial assistance from federal and state authorities

18712

Soyabean prices drop to lowest since 2008,FT.com,18.5.12

Soyabean prices are getting crushed, dropping to their lowest since the financial crisis as the trade war between the US and China ratchets up.Late on Tuesday, the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200bn of imports from China, which would add to levies on $34bn of goods that were put in place at the start of July.China has already said it would target US soyabeans, of which it is the biggest buyer, for retaliatory tariffs, making the crop one of the key battlegrounds for the two large economies.

参考:08912月の大豆先物相場 

081024日 23日、3日続けて下落していたトウモロコシと大豆が上昇へ。価格下落で既に農家の売り控えが起きている米国中西部で雪と強風。

081021日 米国やEUの金融救済策が世界的景気後退を抑え、需要が回復するという思惑から、20日、トウモロコシ、大豆が反発上昇。

081013日 金融危機で飼料・食料・バイオ燃料需要の減退が予想されるなか、米国農務省(USDA)が先週末(10日、金曜日)、米国のトウモロコシと大豆の収穫見通しと世界小麦在庫見通しを予想を超えて引き上げたことから、トウモロコシと大豆はストップ安、小麦も急落。

08107日 106日、金融危機の広がりによる世界的な景気後退→家畜飼料やバイオ燃料に対する需要減少の恐れから、軒並みにストップ安。

08913日 ブッシュ大統領と議会が7000億ドルの公的資金を注ぎ込む金融救済計画に合意したことで米ドルがユーロに対して急騰、米国穀物に対する世界の需要の減少を恐れて大豆、トウモロコシが急落。

1873

大豆、この年の最低レベルに→ 穀物・大豆等先物(期近)価格の長期推移。米国農民はトウモロコシより儲かると空前の大豆作付に走っているが(US farmers plant more soya than corn for first time since 1983,FT.com,18.6.30)、米中貿易戦争を契機とするこの暴落は想定外だろう。

  関連

 

Trump may use New Deal-era agency to aid farmers,FT.com,18.7.2

The Trump administration is exploring the use of a New Deal-era agency to salve financial wounds US farmers have suffered from its trade battle with China.

18620

US-China trade spat takes toll on soyabeans and squeezes farmers,FT.com,18,6.20

Soy Growers in Middle of Tariff Feud with China Stand to Suffer Most,Am,eican Soybean Association,18.6.19

18619

Soyabean futures hit lowest since 2016 on China-US trade spat,FT.com,18.6.19

Futures for other agricultural commodities were also lower on Monday morning. Corn for December delivery was down 1.4 per cent, while wheat for September delivery was off 1.5 per cent. Cotton for December delivery dropped 2.4 per cent.

18616

 トランプが仕掛けた貿易戦争のお陰で米国大豆の対中国輸出が大きく減る見込み。大豆が急落、影響はトウモロコシにも及ぶ。米国農家は大損害だろう。

1853    

Tariffs threat already hurting US soyabean sales,FT.com,18.5.3                        

Boss of trading group Bunge says China is buying instead from Brazil and Canada

Chinese buyers have halted purchases of this years coming US soyabean crop, according to the head of the worlds biggest oilseed processor, a sign that a possible trade war is already reshaping buying patterns to the detriment of American farmers.

Soren Schroder, chief executive of Bunge, said in an interview that he saw the US making very little if any sales of soyabeans to China, the top importer of the foodstuff

.Whatever Chinese business is taking place is directed away from the US to Brazil and Canada, he said.

18425   

Soyabeans avoid longest losing streak this year,FT.com,18.4.5

18412  

Argentina imports 120.000 tons of soy-beans from United States,Merco Press,18.4.12

1844 

Russian grain rise boosts new wheat contract,FT.com,18.4.4

The rise of the Black Sea region as a leading grain exporter has boosted traders interest in a new wheat futures contract one of the few agricultural commodities derivatives to gain traction on the international markets of late. CME Groups Black Sea wheat futures contract that debuted in November last year has attracted wheat traders buying and selling the grain from Russia and Ukraine, while also catching the attention of hedge funds.
 
18330

US farmers to plant less corn, soyabeans in 2018,FT.com,18.3.30

18327

1トンあたり約1100円値上げ−JA全農 4〜6月期の配合飼料価格 農業協同組合新聞 18.3.26

18324

Grain prices sink on threat of Chinese food import tariffs,FT.com,18.3.23

18313

Grain and soyabean prices drop on US tariff concerns,FT.com,13.3.12

1833

小麦が急騰。米国の冬小麦主産地で干ばつ傾向が続いており、小麦生産への影響が懸念されるため。

アルゼンチン干ばつでトウモロコシ、大豆も上昇基調。

18214

Soyabean, soya meal prices jump on Argentina drought concerns,FT.com,18.2.13

Soyabean and soya meal prices jumped on worries about drought in Argentina, a key producer and exporter, as rains last week fell short of expectations.

Dry weather is forecast for the next 5 days, and soyabean prices gained 2 per cent in Chicagos CBOT above $10 a bushel for the first time in two months, while soya meal rallied 4 per cent to $358.2 a short ton, the highest since July 2016. Argentina is the worlds largest soya meal exporter, accounting for almost half the international market.

 Meal appears to be making a massive breakout of a trading range that has been in place for eighteen months, said Michael McDougall at ED&F Man Capital Markets. 

18113

Corn and wheat futures drop after USDA report confirms supply glut,FT.com.18.1.13

Grain markets were momentarily jolted out of a months-long torpor by a suite of grain reports from Washington.

Corn and wheat futures dropped, and soyabeans jumped, after the US Department of Agriculture issued data on grain stocks, crop production and seedings of winter wheat.

Supplies of grain are ample in many parts of the world, pressuring prices and draining volatility from the market.

Grain:World Markets and Trade(USDA)

1819

トウモロコシ相場、二毛作で高まる南米の存在感 日本経済新聞 18.1.9

171225

配合飼料価格1tあたり1500円値上げ−JA全農  農業協同組合新聞 17.12.25

17926

配合飼料供給価格 1tあたり400円値下げ−JA全農 農業協同組合新聞 17.9.25

17711

米国干ばつ減収の恐れ払拭で急落

Corn, wheat, soyabean prices fall after USDA forecasts,FT.com,17.8.11

Futures prices for a wide range of grains fell sharply on Thursday in the US as positive forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture drove investors off bets that yields for crops including wheat, corn and soybeans would come up short.USDA-NASS

 

1771

米国農務省、小麦作付面積の記録的減少予測で小麦がストップ高。大豆、トウモロコシも干ばつによる減収予想で急騰。

Soybeans and Spring Wheat Surge After USDA Report,Bloomberg,17.7.1