史上最高:小麦=9.24/bushel08.6.26) トウモロコシ=7.7325/bushel08.6.1) 大豆=16.58/bushel08.7.4






Le blé américain soutenu par la canicule en Europe,Agri Mutuel,19.6.25

Les cours du blé américain ont fini en nette hausse lundi, aidés par des conditions météorologiques difficiles, entre la canicule en Europe et la persistance de pluies aux États-Unis. Les cours du maïs et du soja ont aussi progressé.




 春季温暖化でアメリカ中西部は大雨続き、アイオワ州の4月から6月にかけての降水量は過去10年の平均を24%上回る。おかげでトウモロコシ・大豆畑は水浸し、今週初め(64日 Crop Progress)のトウモロコシ播種進捗率は67%にとどまっている(例年はの96%)。大豆はたったの39%にすぎない。



   Heavy rainfall damps prospects for Midwestern farms,FT.com,19.6.7




  <関連>Food prices rise amid weak production outlook for maize,FAO,19.6.6 




Corn prices jump to 3-year high amid extreme wet weather,FT.com,19.5.29

Corn prices popped to a 3-year high after a severe delay in plantings in the US midwest due to extreme wet weather.

CBOT corn was trading above $4.38 a bushel, the highest since June 2016. Corn prices have soared 24 per cent since the start of the month amid wet weather conditions.

According to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture, only 58 per cent of corn fields had been sown by the end of last week. That is far lower than the 90 per cent planted on average in the past five years.

 “The window for corn planting is gradually closing if the risk of yield shortfalls is not to increase significantly,” said analysts at Commerzbank.

There are growing concerns about soyabean planting, with just 29 per cent of fields planted, lagging far behind the five-year average figure of 66 per cent.

Winter wheat is also suffering from the wet conditions, with 61 per cent of crops in good or excellent condition — down five percentage points from a week earlier, according to Commerzbank.


長く低迷していた米国トウモロコシ価格が一転上昇へ 大豆は低迷が続く

トウモロコシの作付け(播種)が進まない(5月現在、過去5年平均の半分ほど→Crop Progress USDA 5.21)うえに天候不順(4月の寒さと5月まで続いた異例の多雨)で収量減少も予想される。ためにトウモロコシ先物は過去2週間に急騰。トウモロコシ作付けの遅れは、代替作物である大豆の収穫を促す傾向が歴史的にある。よって大豆価格は将来下がるだろう。今夏の天候予想は明るくても、貿易戦争で痛めつけられた農家に明るい展望は開けない。

 US corn: grainy day,FT.com,19.5.28


先週末〜今週初めにブッシェル8ドルを切った大豆、上昇に転じたが、8.86〜9.21ドルと言われる大部分の農家の採算ライン(トランプ大統領 対中輸出減少で余った大豆を人道的食料援助に)にはなお及ばない。



 from US-China: farmers count cost of trade war ,FT,com,19.1.8 

US-China tensions knock soyabeans to post-crisis low,FT.com,19.5.10

Soyabeans, a commodity sensitive to the state of Sino-US relations, have fallen below $8 a bushel for the first time since the financial crisis as uncertainty rises over trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

A sharp slide in the price of the oilseed came alongside a broader sell-off in financial markets on Thursday, with US stocks down about 1 per cent at midday and long-term US government interest rates tumbling below short-term rates,

in a sign investors were concerned about the economic outlook.The Trump administration’s plan to raise tariffs on more Chinese goods this week have undermined hopes of a deal and sparked the sell-off.

China has steadily grown to become the world’s largest importer of soyabeans, crushing them into meal to feed pigs and poultry. The US has historically sold the majority of its soyabean exports to China, a business worth $12bn a year.

China imposed a 25 per cent tariff on US soyabeans last July in retaliation for new US duties on its goods, targeting farmers in rural states where a majority voted for Donald Trump as president. The impediment halted US soyabean exports to China for months, until a resumption of trade talks in December led China to make about 13m tonnes of goodwill purchases.

An escalation of the trade war threatens to block those volumes, just as farmers hold record stocks of soyabeans

.“The unresolved trade issue with China is hanging over the market. That is the 800lb gorilla,” said Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean & Corn Advisor, a consultancy in Illinois.

Soyabeans for May delivery fell as much as 2.3 per cent to $7.95¼ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the lowest price for a near-month contract since December 2008.

All futures contracts fell, with soyabeans deliverable after the US harvest in November dropping to $8.30 a bushel.

Most farmers cannot break even at such prices. An Iowa State University analysis estimated costs per bushel for the most commonly planted soyabean varieties at between $8.86 and $9.21.--------

CBOT crop futures extend losses amid bearish USDA report, trade tensions,Xinhua,19.5.11

CHICAGO, May 10 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures settled lower for the third consecutive session over larger ending stock estimates and trade tensions.

The most active corn contract for July delivery was down 1.5 cents, or 0.42 percent, to 3.5175 U.S. dollars per bushel on Friday. July wheat was down 4.75 cents, or 1.11 percent, to 4.2475 dollars per bushel. July soybeans were down 3.5 cents, or 0.43 percent, to 8.0925 dollars per bushel.

The U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) released on Friday its monthly supply and demand report, showing bearish estimates for the agricultural market.

The initial outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger stocks. Meanwhile, higher world ending stocks and fierce competition in international market will pressure U.S. wheat further.

The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2019/20 is for larger corn production and domestic use, lower exports, and greater ending stocks. U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 25 million bushels in 2019/20, despite larger world corn trade.

Although the 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19, the trade frictions between the United States and China still drag down CBOT soybean prices, said market watchers.

Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade(May 2019):USDA


配合飼料500円上げ トウモロコシ価格が影響 全農 日本農業新聞 18.12.22





CBOT soybean futures fall as Chinese purchases miss forecast,Xinhua.18.12.22

CHICAGO, Dec. 21 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures ended below 9 U.S. dollars per bushel for the first time in three weeks, as Chinese purchases missed traders' forecast.

Private exporters on Thursday reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) new export sales of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, following 1.199 million metric tons to the same destination this week.

China bought 1.43 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last week, according to the USDA. Traders had anticipated that China would buy more soybeans, market watchers said.

CBOT soybeans were also under pressure from abundant supply from South America, overshadowing support from renewed Chinese buying of U.S. supplies.

Wheat futures dropped sharply after Russia raised its grain export forecast and dampened speculation that tight supplies would prompt curbs on overseas shipments from the world's biggest wheat supplier.

Corn futures rose slightly higher after hitting a three-week low in the previous session.

At the end of the session, the most active corn contract for March delivery went up 3.25 cents, or 0.87 percent to close at 3.785 dollars per bushel. March wheat delivery was down 9.5 cents, or 1.81 percent to close at 5.14 dollars per bushel. March soybean delivery was down 8.5 cents, or 0.94 percent to close at 8.9775 dollars per bushel.


大豆、底入れ後も上値重く 米中「休戦」に不透明感 日本経済新聞 18.12.14



US soyabean futures rise on hopes for China exports,FT.com,18.12.3

The tentative truce in the trade war between Washington and Beijing sparked a rise in the price of US soyabeans, reflecting hopes that exports may soon resume to China.

January-delivered soyabean futures opened up 3.2 per cent early Monday at $9.2375 a bushel, the highest price since June, before giving up some gains on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soyabean futures fell more than 1 per cent on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China.China, the world’s largest consumer of soyabeans, increased tariffs on US-grown supplies by 25 percentage points in July in response to duties on its goods imposed by US President Donald Trump.---------


Soyabeans bounce back on hopes of US-China trade truce,FT.com,18.11.28

Soyabean prices bounced back on Tuesday as traders continued to weigh the prospect of the US and China reaching a trade war truce at the G20 summit later this week.

Prices for the foodstuff fell on Monday by the most in five weeks and to their lowest since early November after US President Donald Trump said in an interview he would push through plans for new tariffs on $267bn of tariffs on Chinese imports if he and Xi Jinping, his counterpart in Beijing, could not agree a deal on trade.

関税合戦、中国に痛手 米国産大豆激減、養豚業から悲鳴
 朝日新聞 18.11.28


US farmers turn to Iran to plug hole in soyabean sales,FT.com,18.10.26

Islamic republics imports have surged as tariffs decimate US sales to China

To US farmers whose soyabean sales have slumped amid a trade war with China, an unlikely country is lending a hand: Iran.

The Islamic republics imports of soyabeans from the US have surged this autumn ahead of looming sanctions from President Donald Trump. Almost 335,000 tonnes have left terminals on the Mississippi river since the crop marketing year began in September, data from the US department of agriculture data show, up from zero at the same point last year and more than volumes to most European countries.

The unusual shipments reflect a multi-faceted story. China, the worlds largest soyabean importer, in July sharply raised duties on US supplies in retaliation for tariffs on its products. Soyabean prices have declined by 20 per cent in Chicago as the Chinese buy oilseeds elsewhere.

US sanctions on Irans oil exports will resume on November 4 following Mr Trumps withdrawal from a nuclear accord with world powers. Iran has been stockpiling basic foods such as corn and soyabeans in an aim not to face any shortage of strategic commodities, said Mani Jamshidi, a food industry expert in Tehran.

Importers including Mexico, Spain, Egypt, Thailand and Iran have taken advantage of the depressed price of US soyabeans. Akbar Sebghati, secretary of the Iranian Oilseed Extraction Industry Association, said they now cost importers 50 less per tonne than soyabeans from South America, the other main source of world supplies

.We buy our commodity from a cheaper producer, no matter [if] it is US or another country. It has nothing to do to politics, said Mr Sebghati.

Addressing the US-China trade war, he said: We should seize opportunities provided to our country during decision making in world trade.


小麦、トウモロコシの限月 189月から12月へ(17日)。


Drought turns up the heat on wheat producers,FT.com,18.7.31

Euronext milling benchmark at a 4-year high as analysts downgrade output estimates

The wheat market is feeling the heat, with key global producers sweating over a drought that has curbed output. After several years of bumper harvests, the wheat market is poised to tighten sharply as Russia, Australia and EU countries contend with scorching temperatures.In Australia, the state of New South Wales has announced a A$500m aid package for struggling farmers, while Germanys farming association has called for 1bn in financial assistance from federal and state authorities


Soyabean prices drop to lowest since 2008,FT.com,18.5.12

Soyabean prices are getting crushed, dropping to their lowest since the financial crisis as the trade war between the US and China ratchets up.Late on Tuesday, the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200bn of imports from China, which would add to levies on $34bn of goods that were put in place at the start of July.China has already said it would target US soyabeans, of which it is the biggest buyer, for retaliatory tariffs, making the crop one of the key battlegrounds for the two large economies.


081024日 23日、3日続けて下落していたトウモロコシと大豆が上昇へ。価格下落で既に農家の売り控えが起きている米国中西部で雪と強風。

081021日 米国やEUの金融救済策が世界的景気後退を抑え、需要が回復するという思惑から、20日、トウモロコシ、大豆が反発上昇。

081013日 金融危機で飼料・食料・バイオ燃料需要の減退が予想されるなか、米国農務省(USDA)が先週末(10日、金曜日)、米国のトウモロコシと大豆の収穫見通しと世界小麦在庫見通しを予想を超えて引き上げたことから、トウモロコシと大豆はストップ安、小麦も急落。

08107日 106日、金融危機の広がりによる世界的な景気後退→家畜飼料やバイオ燃料に対する需要減少の恐れから、軒並みにストップ安。

08913日 ブッシュ大統領と議会が7000億ドルの公的資金を注ぎ込む金融救済計画に合意したことで米ドルがユーロに対して急騰、米国穀物に対する世界の需要の減少を恐れて大豆、トウモロコシが急落。


大豆、この年の最低レベルに→ 穀物・大豆等先物(期近)価格の長期推移。米国農民はトウモロコシより儲かると空前の大豆作付に走っているが(US farmers plant more soya than corn for first time since 1983,FT.com,18.6.30)、米中貿易戦争を契機とするこの暴落は想定外だろう。



Trump may use New Deal-era agency to aid farmers,FT.com,18.7.2

The Trump administration is exploring the use of a New Deal-era agency to salve financial wounds US farmers have suffered from its trade battle with China.


US-China trade spat takes toll on soyabeans and squeezes farmers,FT.com,18,6.20

Soy Growers in Middle of Tariff Feud with China Stand to Suffer Most,Am,eican Soybean Association,18.6.19


Soyabean futures hit lowest since 2016 on China-US trade spat,FT.com,18.6.19

Futures for other agricultural commodities were also lower on Monday morning. Corn for December delivery was down 1.4 per cent, while wheat for September delivery was off 1.5 per cent. Cotton for December delivery dropped 2.4 per cent.




Tariffs threat already hurting US soyabean sales,FT.com,18.5.3                        

Boss of trading group Bunge says China is buying instead from Brazil and Canada

Chinese buyers have halted purchases of this years coming US soyabean crop, according to the head of the worlds biggest oilseed processor, a sign that a possible trade war is already reshaping buying patterns to the detriment of American farmers.

Soren Schroder, chief executive of Bunge, said in an interview that he saw the US making very little if any sales of soyabeans to China, the top importer of the foodstuff

.Whatever Chinese business is taking place is directed away from the US to Brazil and Canada, he said.


Soyabeans avoid longest losing streak this year,FT.com,18.4.5


Argentina imports 120.000 tons of soy-beans from United States,Merco Press,18.4.12


Russian grain rise boosts new wheat contract,FT.com,18.4.4

The rise of the Black Sea region as a leading grain exporter has boosted traders interest in a new wheat futures contract one of the few agricultural commodities derivatives to gain traction on the international markets of late. CME Groups Black Sea wheat futures contract that debuted in November last year has attracted wheat traders buying and selling the grain from Russia and Ukraine, while also catching the attention of hedge funds.

US farmers to plant less corn, soyabeans in 2018,FT.com,18.3.30


1トンあたり約1100円値上げ−JA全農 4〜6月期の配合飼料価格 農業協同組合新聞 18.3.26


Grain prices sink on threat of Chinese food import tariffs,FT.com,18.3.23


Grain and soyabean prices drop on US tariff concerns,FT.com,13.3.12





Soyabean, soya meal prices jump on Argentina drought concerns,FT.com,18.2.13

Soyabean and soya meal prices jumped on worries about drought in Argentina, a key producer and exporter, as rains last week fell short of expectations.

Dry weather is forecast for the next 5 days, and soyabean prices gained 2 per cent in Chicagos CBOT above $10 a bushel for the first time in two months, while soya meal rallied 4 per cent to $358.2 a short ton, the highest since July 2016. Argentina is the worlds largest soya meal exporter, accounting for almost half the international market.

 Meal appears to be making a massive breakout of a trading range that has been in place for eighteen months, said Michael McDougall at ED&F Man Capital Markets. 


Corn and wheat futures drop after USDA report confirms supply glut,FT.com.18.1.13

Grain markets were momentarily jolted out of a months-long torpor by a suite of grain reports from Washington.

Corn and wheat futures dropped, and soyabeans jumped, after the US Department of Agriculture issued data on grain stocks, crop production and seedings of winter wheat.

Supplies of grain are ample in many parts of the world, pressuring prices and draining volatility from the market.

Grain:World Markets and Trade(USDA)


トウモロコシ相場、二毛作で高まる南米の存在感 日本経済新聞 18.1.9


配合飼料価格1tあたり1500円値上げ−JA全農  農業協同組合新聞 17.12.25


配合飼料供給価格 1tあたり400円値下げ−JA全農 農業協同組合新聞 17.9.25



Corn, wheat, soyabean prices fall after USDA forecasts,FT.com,17.8.11

Futures prices for a wide range of grains fell sharply on Thursday in the US as positive forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture drove investors off bets that yields for crops including wheat, corn and soybeans would come up short.→ USDA-NASS




Soybeans and Spring Wheat Surge After USDA Report,Bloomberg,17.7.1