農業情報研究所(WAPIC

シカゴ商品取引所小麦・トウモロコシ・大豆先物相場(期近・セツルメント)の推移

史上最高:小麦=9.24/bushel08.6.26) トウモロコシ=7.7325/bushel08.6.1) 大豆=16.58/bushel08.7.4
1bushel=27.215kg
(小麦・大豆)、25.401kg(トウモロコシ)

コメント/ニュース(最新18.7.31 16年以前は削除)

最近260取引日:17.7.26-18.8.14

コメント/ニュース

18年7月31日

Drought turns up the heat on wheat producers,FT.com,18.7.31

Euronext milling benchmark at a 4-year high as analysts downgrade output estimates

The wheat market is feeling the heat, with key global producers sweating over a drought that has curbed output. After several years of bumper harvests, the wheat market is poised to tighten sharply as Russia, Australia and EU countries contend with scorching temperatures.In Australia, the state of New South Wales has announced a A$500m aid package for struggling farmers, while Germany’s farming association has called for €1bn in financial assistance from federal and state authorities

18年7月12日

Soyabean prices drop to lowest since 2008,FT.com,18.5.12

Soyabean prices are getting crushed, dropping to their lowest since the financial crisis as the trade war between the US and China ratchets up.Late on Tuesday, the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200bn of imports from China, which would add to levies on $34bn of goods that were put in place at the start of July.China has already said it would target US soyabeans, of which it is the biggest buyer, for retaliatory tariffs, making the crop one of the key battlegrounds for the two large economies.

参考:08年9−12月の大豆先物相場 

08年10月24日 23日、3日続けて下落していたトウモロコシと大豆が上昇へ。価格下落で既に農家の売り控えが起きている米国中西部で雪と強風。

08年10月21日 米国やEUの金融救済策が世界的景気後退を抑え、需要が回復するという思惑から、20日、トウモロコシ、大豆が反発上昇。

08年10月13日 金融危機で飼料・食料・バイオ燃料需要の減退が予想されるなか、米国農務省(USDA)が先週末(10日、金曜日)、米国のトウモロコシと大豆の収穫見通しと世界小麦在庫見通しを予想を超えて引き上げたことから、トウモロコシと大豆はストップ安、小麦も急落。

08年10月7日 10月6日、金融危機の広がりによる世界的な景気後退→家畜飼料やバイオ燃料に対する需要減少の恐れから、軒並みにストップ安。

08年9月13日 ブッシュ大統領と議会が7000億ドルの公的資金を注ぎ込む金融救済計画に合意したことで米ドルがユーロに対して急騰、米国穀物に対する世界の需要の減少を恐れて大豆、トウモロコシが急落。

18年7月3日

大豆、この年の最低レベルに→ 穀物・大豆等先物(期近)価格の長期推移。米国農民はトウモロコシより儲かると空前の大豆作付に走っているが(US farmers plant more soya than corn for first time since 1983,FT.com,18.6.30)、米中貿易戦争を契機とするこの暴落は想定外だろう。

   関連

Trump may use New Deal-era agency to aid farmers,FT.com,18.7.2

The Trump administration is exploring the use of a New Deal-era agency to salve financial wounds US farmers have suffered from its trade battle with China.

18年6月20日

US-China trade spat takes toll on soyabeans and squeezes farmers,FT.com,18,6.20

Soy Growers in Middle of Tariff Feud with China Stand to Suffer Most,Am,eican Soybean Association,18.6.19

18年6月19日

Soyabean futures hit lowest since 2016 on China-US trade spat,FT.com,18.6.19

Futures for other agricultural commodities were also lower on Monday morning. Corn for December delivery was down 1.4 per cent, while wheat for September delivery was off 1.5 per cent. Cotton for December delivery dropped 2.4 per cent.

18年6月16日

 トランプが仕掛けた貿易戦争のお陰で米国大豆の対中国輸出が大きく減る見込み。大豆が急落、影響はトウモロコシにも及ぶ。米国農家は大損害だろう。

18年5月3日    

Tariffs threat ‘already hurting US soyabean sales’,FT.com,18.5.3                        

Boss of trading group Bunge says China is buying instead from Brazil and Canada

Chinese buyers have halted purchases of this year’s coming US soyabean crop, according to the head of the world’s biggest oilseed processor, a sign that a possible trade war is already reshaping buying patterns to the detriment of American farmers.

Soren Schroder, chief executive of Bunge, said in an interview that he saw the US making “very little if any” sales of soyabeans to China, the top importer of the foodstuff

.“Whatever Chinese business is taking place is directed away from the US to Brazil and Canada,” he said.

18年4月25日   

Soyabeans avoid longest losing streak this year,FT.com,18.4.5

18年4月12日  

Argentina imports 120.000 tons of soy-beans from United States,Merco Press,18.4.12

18年4月4日 

Russian grain rise boosts new wheat contract,FT.com,18.4.4

The rise of the Black Sea region as a leading grain exporter has boosted traders’ interest in a new wheat futures contract — one of the few agricultural commodities derivatives to gain traction on the international markets of late. CME Group’s Black Sea wheat futures contract that debuted in November last year has attracted wheat traders buying and selling the grain from Russia and Ukraine, while also catching the attention of hedge funds.
 
18年3月30

US farmers to plant less corn, soyabeans in 2018,FT.com,18.3.30

18年3月27日

1トンあたり約1100円値上げ−JA全農 4〜6月期の配合飼料価格 農業協同組合新聞 18.3.26

18年3月24日

Grain prices sink on threat of Chinese food import tariffs,FT.com,18.3.23

18年3月13日

Grain and soyabean prices drop on US tariff concerns,FT.com,13.3.12

18年3月3日

小麦が急騰。米国の冬小麦主産地で干ばつ傾向が続いており、小麦生産への影響が懸念されるため。

アルゼンチン干ばつでトウモロコシ、大豆も上昇基調。

18年2月14日

Soyabean, soya meal prices jump on Argentina drought concerns,FT.com,18.2.13

Soyabean and soya meal prices jumped on worries about drought in Argentina, a key producer and exporter, as rains last week fell short of expectations.

Dry weather is forecast for the next 5 days, and soyabean prices gained 2 per cent in Chicago’s CBOT above $10 a bushel for the first time in two months, while soya meal rallied 4 per cent to $358.2 a short ton, the highest since July 2016. Argentina is the world’s largest soya meal exporter, accounting for almost half the international market.

 “Meal appears to be making a massive breakout of a trading range that has been in place for eighteen months,” said Michael McDougall at ED&F Man Capital Markets. 

18年1月13日

Corn and wheat futures drop after USDA report confirms supply glut,FT.com.18.1.13

Grain markets were momentarily jolted out of a months-long torpor by a suite of grain reports from Washington.

Corn and wheat futures dropped, and soyabeans jumped, after the US Department of Agriculture issued data on grain stocks, crop production and seedings of winter wheat.

Supplies of grain are ample in many parts of the world, pressuring prices and draining volatility from the market.

Grain:World Markets and Trade(USDA)

18年1月9日

トウモロコシ相場、二毛作で高まる南米の存在感 日本経済新聞 18.1.9

17年12月25日

配合飼料価格1tあたり1500円値上げ−JA全農  農業協同組合新聞 17.12.25

17926

配合飼料供給価格 1tあたり400円値下げ−JA全農 農業協同組合新聞 17.9.25

17711

米国干ばつ減収の恐れ払拭で急落

Corn, wheat, soyabean prices fall after USDA forecasts,FT.com,17.8.11

Futures prices for a wide range of grains fell sharply on Thursday in the US as positive forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture drove investors off bets that yields for crops including wheat, corn and soybeans would come up short.→ USDA-NASS

 

1771

米国農務省、小麦作付面積の記録的減少予測で小麦がストップ高。大豆、トウモロコシも干ばつによる減収予想で急騰。

Soybeans and Spring Wheat Surge After USDA Report,Bloomberg,17.7.1