農業情報研究所(WAPIC

シカゴ商品取引所小麦・トウモロコシ・大豆先物相場(期近・セツルメント)の推移

史上最高:小麦=9.24/bushel08.6.26) トウモロコシ=7.7325/bushel08.6.1) 大豆=16.58/bushel08.7.4
1bushel=27.215kg
(小麦・大豆)、25.401kg(トウモロコシ)

コメント/ニュース(最新18.12.22

最近260取引日:18.1.4-19.1.18

コメント/ニュース

1812月22日

配合飼料500円上げ トウモロコシ価格が影響 全農 日本農業新聞 18.12.22

 JA全農は21日、2019年1〜3月期の配合飼料の供給価格を、前期(18年10〜12月期)に比べ、全国全畜種総平均で1トン当たり約500円引き上げると発表した。値上げは2期ぶり。米中間の貿易摩擦から大豆かすの価格は下落したが、トウモロコシの価格上昇や円安が影響した。また、全農によると、10〜12月期の配合飼料価格安定制度による補填(ほてん)は発動する見通しだ。

 トウモロコシのシカゴ相場は現在、1ブッシェル(約25キロ)380セント台で推移。米国産の豊作の見通しから9月には350セント前後だったが、好調な輸出需要や、10月11日発表の米農務省の需給見通しで単位収量が下方修正されたことなどから上昇した。米国産は史上2位の生産量となる見通しだが、米国内の飼料やエタノールなどの需要も史上最高が予想され、今後の相場は底堅く推移する見込みだ。
 一方、大豆かすのシカゴ相場は1トン当たり340ドル前後で推移し、同350ドル台だった9月より下落した。中国が米国産の大豆に報復関税をかけたことで、11月8日の米農務省需給見通しが米国の大豆輸出量を下方修正され、期末在庫が大幅に増加したことなどが影響。国内大豆かす価格も値下がりが見込まれる。
 為替相場は9月上旬に1ドル111円前後だったが、今回の価格決定時には113円前後で、円安となった。海上運賃は10月には1トン当たり53ドル台まで上昇したが、原油相場の下落などで現在は50ドル前後で推移する。

 参考:飼料用トウモロコシ輸入価格、米国輸出価格、円相場(2018年)

  

CBOT soybean futures fall as Chinese purchases miss forecast,Xinhua.18.12.22

CHICAGO, Dec. 21 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures ended below 9 U.S. dollars per bushel for the first time in three weeks, as Chinese purchases missed traders' forecast.

Private exporters on Thursday reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) new export sales of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China, following 1.199 million metric tons to the same destination this week.

China bought 1.43 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last week, according to the USDA. Traders had anticipated that China would buy more soybeans, market watchers said.

CBOT soybeans were also under pressure from abundant supply from South America, overshadowing support from renewed Chinese buying of U.S. supplies.

Wheat futures dropped sharply after Russia raised its grain export forecast and dampened speculation that tight supplies would prompt curbs on overseas shipments from the world's biggest wheat supplier.

Corn futures rose slightly higher after hitting a three-week low in the previous session.

At the end of the session, the most active corn contract for March delivery went up 3.25 cents, or 0.87 percent to close at 3.785 dollars per bushel. March wheat delivery was down 9.5 cents, or 1.81 percent to close at 5.14 dollars per bushel. March soybean delivery was down 8.5 cents, or 0.94 percent to close at 8.9775 dollars per bushel.

1812月15日

大豆、底入れ後も上値重く 米中「休戦」に不透明感 日本経済新聞 18.12.14

米中貿易戦争のあおりで春夏に急落した大豆相場が底入れした。シカゴ先物(期近)は1ブッシェル9.1ドル前後と9月の安値より1割高い。中国が米国産の農産物輸入を増やす姿勢を示し、投機筋が買い意欲を強めた。ただ米中貿易がどこまで回復するか不透明なうえ、主産国の米国やブラジルの供給は潤沢。上値の重い展開を予想する声は多い。

1812月3日

US soyabean futures rise on hopes for China exports,FT.com,18.12.3

The tentative truce in the trade war between Washington and Beijing sparked a rise in the price of US soyabeans, reflecting hopes that exports may soon resume to China.

January-delivered soyabean futures opened up 3.2 per cent early Monday at $9.2375 a bushel, the highest price since June, before giving up some gains on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soyabean futures fell more than 1 per cent on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China.China, the world’s largest consumer of soyabeans, increased tariffs on US-grown supplies by 25 percentage points in July in response to duties on its goods imposed by US President Donald Trump.---------

1811月29日

Soyabeans bounce back on hopes of US-China trade truce,FT.com,18.11.28

Soyabean prices bounced back on Tuesday as traders continued to weigh the prospect of the US and China reaching a trade war truce at the G20 summit later this week.

Prices for the foodstuff fell on Monday by the most in five weeks and to their lowest since early November after US President Donald Trump said in an interview he would push through plans for new tariffs on $267bn of tariffs on Chinese imports if he and Xi Jinping, his counterpart in Beijing, could not agree a deal on trade.

関税合戦、中国に痛手 米国産大豆激減、養豚業から悲鳴
 朝日新聞 18.11.28

181027

US farmers turn to Iran to plug hole in soyabean sales,FT.com,18.10.26

Islamic republics imports have surged as tariffs decimate US sales to China

To US farmers whose soyabean sales have slumped amid a trade war with China, an unlikely country is lending a hand: Iran.

The Islamic republics imports of soyabeans from the US have surged this autumn ahead of looming sanctions from President Donald Trump. Almost 335,000 tonnes have left terminals on the Mississippi river since the crop marketing year began in September, data from the US department of agriculture data show, up from zero at the same point last year and more than volumes to most European countries.

The unusual shipments reflect a multi-faceted story. China, the worlds largest soyabean importer, in July sharply raised duties on US supplies in retaliation for tariffs on its products. Soyabean prices have declined by 20 per cent in Chicago as the Chinese buy oilseeds elsewhere.

US sanctions on Irans oil exports will resume on November 4 following Mr Trumps withdrawal from a nuclear accord with world powers. Iran has been stockpiling basic foods such as corn and soyabeans in an aim not to face any shortage of strategic commodities, said Mani Jamshidi, a food industry expert in Tehran.

Importers including Mexico, Spain, Egypt, Thailand and Iran have taken advantage of the depressed price of US soyabeans. Akbar Sebghati, secretary of the Iranian Oilseed Extraction Industry Association, said they now cost importers 50 less per tonne than soyabeans from South America, the other main source of world supplies

.We buy our commodity from a cheaper producer, no matter [if] it is US or another country. It has nothing to do to politics, said Mr Sebghati.

Addressing the US-China trade war, he said: We should seize opportunities provided to our country during decision making in world trade.

18918

小麦、トウモロコシの限月 189月から12月へ(17日)。

18731

Drought turns up the heat on wheat producers,FT.com,18.7.31

Euronext milling benchmark at a 4-year high as analysts downgrade output estimates

The wheat market is feeling the heat, with key global producers sweating over a drought that has curbed output. After several years of bumper harvests, the wheat market is poised to tighten sharply as Russia, Australia and EU countries contend with scorching temperatures.In Australia, the state of New South Wales has announced a A$500m aid package for struggling farmers, while Germanys farming association has called for 1bn in financial assistance from federal and state authorities

18712

Soyabean prices drop to lowest since 2008,FT.com,18.5.12

Soyabean prices are getting crushed, dropping to their lowest since the financial crisis as the trade war between the US and China ratchets up.Late on Tuesday, the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200bn of imports from China, which would add to levies on $34bn of goods that were put in place at the start of July.China has already said it would target US soyabeans, of which it is the biggest buyer, for retaliatory tariffs, making the crop one of the key battlegrounds for the two large economies.

参考:08912月の大豆先物相場 

081024日 23日、3日続けて下落していたトウモロコシと大豆が上昇へ。価格下落で既に農家の売り控えが起きている米国中西部で雪と強風。

081021日 米国やEUの金融救済策が世界的景気後退を抑え、需要が回復するという思惑から、20日、トウモロコシ、大豆が反発上昇。

081013日 金融危機で飼料・食料・バイオ燃料需要の減退が予想されるなか、米国農務省(USDA)が先週末(10日、金曜日)、米国のトウモロコシと大豆の収穫見通しと世界小麦在庫見通しを予想を超えて引き上げたことから、トウモロコシと大豆はストップ安、小麦も急落。

08107日 106日、金融危機の広がりによる世界的な景気後退→家畜飼料やバイオ燃料に対する需要減少の恐れから、軒並みにストップ安。

08913日 ブッシュ大統領と議会が7000億ドルの公的資金を注ぎ込む金融救済計画に合意したことで米ドルがユーロに対して急騰、米国穀物に対する世界の需要の減少を恐れて大豆、トウモロコシが急落。

1873

大豆、この年の最低レベルに→ 穀物・大豆等先物(期近)価格の長期推移。米国農民はトウモロコシより儲かると空前の大豆作付に走っているが(US farmers plant more soya than corn for first time since 1983,FT.com,18.6.30)、米中貿易戦争を契機とするこの暴落は想定外だろう。

  関連

 

Trump may use New Deal-era agency to aid farmers,FT.com,18.7.2

The Trump administration is exploring the use of a New Deal-era agency to salve financial wounds US farmers have suffered from its trade battle with China.

18620

US-China trade spat takes toll on soyabeans and squeezes farmers,FT.com,18,6.20

Soy Growers in Middle of Tariff Feud with China Stand to Suffer Most,Am,eican Soybean Association,18.6.19

18619

Soyabean futures hit lowest since 2016 on China-US trade spat,FT.com,18.6.19

Futures for other agricultural commodities were also lower on Monday morning. Corn for December delivery was down 1.4 per cent, while wheat for September delivery was off 1.5 per cent. Cotton for December delivery dropped 2.4 per cent.

18616

 トランプが仕掛けた貿易戦争のお陰で米国大豆の対中国輸出が大きく減る見込み。大豆が急落、影響はトウモロコシにも及ぶ。米国農家は大損害だろう。

1853    

Tariffs threat already hurting US soyabean sales,FT.com,18.5.3                        

Boss of trading group Bunge says China is buying instead from Brazil and Canada

Chinese buyers have halted purchases of this years coming US soyabean crop, according to the head of the worlds biggest oilseed processor, a sign that a possible trade war is already reshaping buying patterns to the detriment of American farmers.

Soren Schroder, chief executive of Bunge, said in an interview that he saw the US making very little if any sales of soyabeans to China, the top importer of the foodstuff

.Whatever Chinese business is taking place is directed away from the US to Brazil and Canada, he said.

18425   

Soyabeans avoid longest losing streak this year,FT.com,18.4.5

18412  

Argentina imports 120.000 tons of soy-beans from United States,Merco Press,18.4.12

1844 

Russian grain rise boosts new wheat contract,FT.com,18.4.4

The rise of the Black Sea region as a leading grain exporter has boosted traders interest in a new wheat futures contract one of the few agricultural commodities derivatives to gain traction on the international markets of late. CME Groups Black Sea wheat futures contract that debuted in November last year has attracted wheat traders buying and selling the grain from Russia and Ukraine, while also catching the attention of hedge funds.
 
18330

US farmers to plant less corn, soyabeans in 2018,FT.com,18.3.30

18327

1トンあたり約1100円値上げ−JA全農 4〜6月期の配合飼料価格 農業協同組合新聞 18.3.26

18324

Grain prices sink on threat of Chinese food import tariffs,FT.com,18.3.23

18313

Grain and soyabean prices drop on US tariff concerns,FT.com,13.3.12

1833

小麦が急騰。米国の冬小麦主産地で干ばつ傾向が続いており、小麦生産への影響が懸念されるため。

アルゼンチン干ばつでトウモロコシ、大豆も上昇基調。

18214

Soyabean, soya meal prices jump on Argentina drought concerns,FT.com,18.2.13

Soyabean and soya meal prices jumped on worries about drought in Argentina, a key producer and exporter, as rains last week fell short of expectations.

Dry weather is forecast for the next 5 days, and soyabean prices gained 2 per cent in Chicagos CBOT above $10 a bushel for the first time in two months, while soya meal rallied 4 per cent to $358.2 a short ton, the highest since July 2016. Argentina is the worlds largest soya meal exporter, accounting for almost half the international market.

 Meal appears to be making a massive breakout of a trading range that has been in place for eighteen months, said Michael McDougall at ED&F Man Capital Markets. 

18113

Corn and wheat futures drop after USDA report confirms supply glut,FT.com.18.1.13

Grain markets were momentarily jolted out of a months-long torpor by a suite of grain reports from Washington.

Corn and wheat futures dropped, and soyabeans jumped, after the US Department of Agriculture issued data on grain stocks, crop production and seedings of winter wheat.

Supplies of grain are ample in many parts of the world, pressuring prices and draining volatility from the market.

Grain:World Markets and Trade(USDA)

1819

トウモロコシ相場、二毛作で高まる南米の存在感 日本経済新聞 18.1.9

171225

配合飼料価格1tあたり1500円値上げ−JA全農  農業協同組合新聞 17.12.25

17926

配合飼料供給価格 1tあたり400円値下げ−JA全農 農業協同組合新聞 17.9.25

17711

米国干ばつ減収の恐れ払拭で急落

Corn, wheat, soyabean prices fall after USDA forecasts,FT.com,17.8.11

Futures prices for a wide range of grains fell sharply on Thursday in the US as positive forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture drove investors off bets that yields for crops including wheat, corn and soybeans would come up short.→ USDA-NASS

 

1771

米国農務省、小麦作付面積の記録的減少予測で小麦がストップ高。大豆、トウモロコシも干ばつによる減収予想で急騰。

Soybeans and Spring Wheat Surge After USDA Report,Bloomberg,17.7.1